As we draw the curtains over an exhilarating season, a question floats to my mind - who were the most potent attackers that sliced defences apart with their prolific attacking returns?

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Certain names naturally emerge: Salah, De Bruyne, Kane & Ronaldo.

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But do these names hold up when we dive into the data?

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Let's find out.

A) Volume, Quality, Form & Just Pure Class

There are many approaches to determining attacking excellence. The purest measure will be the actual volume of attacking returns (goals and assists).

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But it is also interesting to compare actual attacking returns against expected attacking returns, a statistical measurement of the likelihood of returns - or in layman terms, how well they should be performing based on the context of their shots, key passes, positioning and so on.

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Combining these 2 approaches will help us to highlight the truly potent attackers.

‍xG = Expected Goals

G = Actual Goals Scored

xA = Expected Assists

A = Actual Assists

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There are 3 key insights to highlight from the graph of the top 30 attacking players in 21/22 above:

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1) A higher volume of actual attacking returns vs expected attacking returns.

Theoretically, Expected Attacking Returns (xG + xA) should be close to Actual Attacking Returns (G + A) as indicated by the line.

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We do however see many players who have performed well above their expected attacking returns. Key names include Son, De Bruyne & James Maddison.

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These are players who have either had a really good season or are just pure class. Gifted players like Son and De Bruyne consistently deliver more as compared to other players who return what's expected of them in that circumstance.

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We also see rising stars like Mount and Bowen, future Salahs and Sons that should challenge themselves to increase their volume of output - be it through tactical maturity or a bigger club.

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As for James Maddison, such a large difference between expected and actual attacking returns is usually not sustainable as there could be an element of luck involved - but I would love to see him prove me wrong! 

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2) Players with so much promise but disappointed in the end

On the flip side, players like Raphinha, King and Jack Grealish fall far below the line of actual attacking returns.

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For players like Raphinha and King, we could reason that being in an overall poor performing team affected their numbers. Raphinha in particular could provide all the quality assists, but if there's no one to finish them it all comes to nothing.

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As for Jack Grealish, it can be alarming to see such a huge gap and write him off as overrated - but I'll hold off judgement as we dive deeper into his xA.

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Hint - there is a reason why Man City are buying a proper striker in Haaland.

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3) Salah is King

The Egyptian King is untouchable in pure volume of attacking returns, quality and class. Enough said.

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B) Unpacking Expected Goals & Quality Of Shooting

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If we dive deeper into the top-performing players who've led the way in xG per 90, we can highlight another 3 key insights:

1) Son and Vardy are seriously deadly finishers, with an xG per shot of close to 0.2 AND and an Actual Goals per 90 that exceeds their xG per 90 - crazy considering they already generate the highest xGs with each shot.

Never give them even a sniff of a chance - they will punish you.

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2) Kevin De Bruyne is exceptional at long shots. He has a lower xG per shot due to consistently shooting from distance, but boy does he put them away. Get in!

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3) Jarrod Bowen is truly a rising star. With an xG per shot of 0.14 and excellent positional play that sees him fire off most of his shots in the box, we can expect great things from this lad.

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C) Deep Diving into Expected Assists

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SCA90: Shot Creating Actions per 90 mins

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Remember when I said that it might be harsh to write off Grealish? Here's why.

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Kevin De Bruyne leads the pack in xA per 90 and the amount of Shot Creating Actions per 90. But if even the quality De Bruyne falls short in Actual Assist Output, what chance does Grealish have?

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It will be interesting to see how the addition of a proven striker like Haaland will change these numbers next season.

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Oh and again, Bowen is one to watch with an Actual Assist output that well exceeds his Expected Assist.

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D) What About the Underperformers - Can They Improve?

1) Be it through talent or pure hard work, if Joshua King can improve on converting his chances, he can evolve into a potent, top-class striker at a level close to Vardy. A change of club or manager could be worth a shot for him.

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2) Jack Grealish has a leading output in terms of actions that lead to shots, close to De Bruyne. There should be no question about his industry and talent. With a deadly finisher like Haaland, we should expect these to convert to actual assists, so I'll hold till then before deciding if he's worth his price tag. Keep em coming!

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E) Ranking Our Attackers In The 21/22 Season

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Absolute Class Tier

Salah

Son

De Bruyne

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Deadly Finisher Tier

Vardy

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Keep Em Coming Lad Tier

Bowen

Mason Mount

Jack Grealish

Raphinha

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I'm Not Sure, Prove Me Wrong Tier

Joshua King

Maddison

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