"AGUEROOOOOO" 

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*Slack notification comes in*

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I stumble from my reverie. Here I was - dreaming of the perfect ending to Liverpool's 21/22 Premier League campaign - a dramatic finish akin to Manchester City's hair-raising, heart-pumping title win in 2012. Alas, I was indeed watching that bloody intense Aguero goal as I got myself in the zone of perfect anticipation.

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I remembered many good feelings from that night, including the intense happiness I derived as a Liverpool fan seeing Fergie's smug face change when he realized the title slipped from their hands. Pure joy.

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My thoughts fluttered again, to Solksjaer, Lord Maguire and eventually to this question: What's wrong with Manchester United? For England's most successful club, they certainly are going through a rough patch, struggling to even break into the top 4 by far. In fact, they are a good 30 points away from the top. Ouch.

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So what do I do? I dive into the numbers.

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Distilling The Problem

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If we look at diagram above, we instantly notice 3 things: 

1) Manchester United ain't that bad at scoring, ranking 6th in the league.

2) They are however horrible at keeping opponents from scoring. They rank 13th in league. (Don't let the colour heatmap fool you - the higher the xGA, the shittier you are)

3) They have a really shitty goal difference, conceding as much as they score.

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Not leaving it solely to the observations of my eyes, I mapped the correlation between xG, XGA and xGD to Pts:

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TLDR, the only thing that matters is xGD, aka goal difference.

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And that Man U really sucks at defending.

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What is wrong with Man U's Defence?

At this point, it's time to take a deep breath - especially if you're a United fan - and realize that it's not all Maguire's fault.

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As a team, there many things that are fundamentally wrong.

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The key tenets of defence in the Premier League - what leads to a higher xGA?

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1) Pressing intensity:

Calculated by PPDA and SCADA

PPDA = The amount of passes the opponent makes for every defensive action you make (tackles, interceptions)

SCADA = The amount of shot creating actions (actions that lead to a shot - passes, dribbles, etc) for every defensive action you make.

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If you press well, you will not allow your opponents room to make passes or shot creating actions. The lower your PPDA and SCADA, the better your pressing intensity.

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The EPL is one of the most, if not the most intense pressing leagues in Europe thanks to Klopp, Guardiola and Tuchel.

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At 0.66, SCADA has one of the highest correlations to impacting the amount of goals you will concede. The higher your SCADA, the more goals you you are expected to let in.

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2) Location of the press and tackles

Where your presses and tackles occur impact xGA greatly.

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This can be seen from the high negative correlations for Tk_Att_Third_Perc (Tackles Made in Attacking 3rd, -0.78) and Att_Third_Press_Perc (Presses Made in Attacking 3rd, -0.65).

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Decoding the values - the higher up you initiate your presses and tackles, the less goals you are expected to concede.

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Where does Man U Stand?

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When we look at the SCADA and location of presses+tackles, we can see why Man U is struggling in defence.

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1) A high SCADA value at 0.63. For comparison, Liverpool and Man City have SCADA values of 0.43 and 0.4 respectively - they are really intense in their press

2) A sub par volume of presses out of possession - 103 vs Liverpools 137

3) A low volume of presses happening in the attacking third at 22%, vs Man City's 34%

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Hang on...what about Spurs?

Scouring through the numbers, you'd notice that Spurs don't press that hard or have a high amount of presses in the attacking 3rd. What did Conte do differently?

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3 words: Shots on target

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If you look at the amount of shots opponents have taken against Man U and Spurs, they are relatively similar - 501 vs 485.

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But when we look at the % of shots that are on target, we see a different story. Man U have the 6th highest shots on target against them, while Spurs are the best in league besides Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City.

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Not to mention, when you compare Harry Maguire vs Romero....

Conte might not be following in the footsteps of Klopp and co, but at least he's got a tight formation with the right tactical instructions for the right players. And he's got a very capable defender to rely on when soaking up the pressure.

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The Way Forward For Man U

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Be clear in their approach

If I was Ten Hag, the first thing I would do is decide on a strategic approach towards playing football. This would be key in determining who to keep, and who to purchase in the transfer market. You buy players to fit your long term vision, not fit your vision to your current players.

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If Ten Hag decides to go for a non-pressing side, he would need really capable defenders - your Romeros.

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Personally, I would opt for a pressing approach. The evidence that this tactic works is overwhelming, with many clubs and leagues in Europe gravitating towards this approach.

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Get the right players

In properly transiting towards a high-pressing side, Man U needs 2 players urgently to tackle their current problems:

1) An efficient, high-pressing midfielder that can also transit from defence to attack and feed Ronaldo.

2) A confident, ball-playing defender that can join the attack - a Van Dijk.

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1) High-pressing midfielder that can also transit from defence to attack

There are transfer rumours that Ten Hag might be going for Kante, but does he fit the bill? 

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Absolutely - he has the ability to fit in straight away with his:

1) High volume of pressures and tackles.

2) Ability to link defense to attack based on his passing stats + being in the 94th percentile for progressive carries (carries that move the ball forward)

3) High expected assists (xA) - he's in the 86th percentile.

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Compared to McTominay, Kante is leagues ahead. Fred on the other hand, ain't that bad. At least he presses well and has average passing stats.

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Kante is also experienced, and with his advancing age, might not proof to be too expensive (50 mil pounds according to Transfermrkt)

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But my choice? Konrad Laimer from RB Leipzig.

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1) Being from RB Leipzig, he can immediately fit into a high pressing tactic, with pressure (99th percentile!!) and tackling volumes to back it up.

2) He has a better xG+xA per 90 stat than Kante

3) He is only 24 - he is yet to peak as a player.

4) He is valued at only 26 million pounds!

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With the extra funds, Man U could even explore getting another midfielder to shore up their midfield, such as Adrien Thomasson from RC Strasbourg Alsace:

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He has amazing pressure, tackle and attacking stats. Best part? He's 28, and only valued at 8 million pounds.

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You really don't have to splurge to find the best players to fit your strategy.

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2) A confident, ball-playing defender that can join the attack

My choice would be the Moroccan Nayef Aguerd from Rennes.

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Comparing to Van Dijk, one of the best ball playing defenders in the league, Nayef has a very similar profile

1) A high volume of passes attempted + above 90% pass completion rate

2) A high volume of progressive passes and carries.

3) Dominance in the air.

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At 26 years old, he is entering his peak, and costs only 9 million pounds.

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Conclusion

I guess at the end of the day, we can say 3 things:

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1) Man U really need to learn how to defend.

2) They need to be clear on their strategy to inform them on the right players to buy

3) We need to ask why a Liverpool fan is diving so deep into improving Man U's performances.

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In the meantime, let me go back to building up my anticipation for Liverpool's title win on Sunday.